May 2, 2001
 
 The following was posted on www.cumberlandmd.com by City Councilman Terry Rephann.
 
 
 Cumberland Onliners-
 
 I just had an opportunity to read the recently completed Housing Market Analysis for the 4th Street Apartments conducted by Real Property Research Group, Inc. Although I am not at liberty to divulge the exact contents, I can share with you some of the general features of this report. In my mind, this is a weak report that was cut-and-pasted together for one purpose: to give the developer the basis for pursuing his funding. There are three major mistakes/omissions which render this report unacceptable:
 
 (1) The consultants obtained local area population estimates from Claritas, Inc. which showed a rather significant projected drop in households (several hundred) in the Greater Cumberland Maryland housing market to the year 2005. Normally, that would have been the end of story. A professional consultant would conclude: no households—no demand. Instead, the Consultants go on to argue that the Claritas estimates will be ignored because they fail to include the growth in the institutionalized population (i.e., the prison inmates). No matter that Claritas estimates the noninstitutionalized population beautifully, and only this non-institutionalized population will affect the demand for housing. No matter that Claritas uses a projection methodology that is applied consistently from one Census tract to another across the country and is regarded as a reliable, impartial source of local area population data. Instead, they contrive their own convoluted methodology to show (surprise!) that the number of households will increase by more than enough to justify the housing project. If you are looking for the silver bullet that slays the Werewolf, this is it.
 
 (2) The “Greater Cumberland Housing Area” housing market is a ‘donut.’ West Virginia (including Ridgeley and Wiley Ford) is cut right out of the center. I suspect that there is a reason for this omission. Such things don’t normally happen by accident.
 
 (3) The report doesn’t take any account of new and proposed construction in the area:
 
 * New Allegany College student apartments which will remove about 120 (maybe more) or so students from local housing.
 
 *New student housing construction at Frostburg State University.
 
 * East Side School may be renovated by a private developer to provide several dozen apartments for seniors.
 
 * The Cumberland Housing Authority may adopt and bring online the Allegany Towers (20-25 apartments) as well as a few units elsewhere if it establishes an incremental need for its service population. That’s why they are having Hammer, Siler, George Associates (a much better consulting firm, I might add) conducting a market need analysis for them.
 
 There are numerous other problems with the report. It reads more like a travelogue than a critical appraisal of the opportunities in the region and capacities of local facilities. It relies almost exclusively on antique 1990 Census of Housing data for information on housing and occupant characteristics. It claims in the “Executive Summary” that the project will incorporate “key community amenities;” yet other than a ‘coin-operated laundry facility, it identifies nothing of import.
 
 I hate to say it (okay, maybe I don’t :/ ): this report is a real dud.
 
 Terry